TradingLounge Commodity Silver (XAGUSD) Elliott Wave Analysis
In September, Silver has retraced much of its August gains. Despite the current pullback, the bullish outlook remains intact for the short term, especially once the correction is confirmed as complete. This analysis will detail where and when the next phase of the August rally may resume.
Silver Long-Term Chart Analysis
Silver Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
Silver has been in a strong bullish trend since October 2023. Although there was a notable pullback during December 2023 and January 2024, the overall bullish trend remains solid. Silver surged in early 2024, reaching a new high in May. After this peak, another pullback occurred, but the recovery appears to be on track. The key support level to watch is $26.515. As long as Silver prices remain above this level, the broader bullish trend should persist.
Silver (XAGUSD) Daily Chart Analysis
On the daily chart, the rally from January 2024 completed an impulsive wave structure labeled as wave A (circled) of the primary degree. The subsequent pullback from the May 2024 high completed a double zigzag corrective pattern, which ended in August 2024. The critical level to monitor is $26.515, from which Silver is expected to start a new impulsive rally, forming wave C (circled) of the primary degree. Technical projections indicate wave C (circled) could push prices up to $37.15 in the coming weeks or months.
For the bullish momentum to unfold, the current dip—labeled as wave (2) of C (circled)—must stay above $26.515. If this level is breached, the current wave structure would be invalidated, and wave B (circled) could extend lower, delaying the anticipated upward rally.
Silver (XAGUSD) H4 Chart Analysis
The H4 chart provides a closer look at the corrective wave (2), which is unfolding in a double zigzag pattern. Waves W and X are already complete, and the market is progressing within wave Y of (2). The first sub-wave of Y finished on September 6, and the current upward bounce is part of the second sub-wave. However, another decline is expected as the third sub-wave of Y completes the structure.
In the short term, downside momentum is favored, but any further decline is likely to remain above the critical $26.515 level. Once wave Y of (2) concludes, Silver should resume its upward trajectory in wave (3) of C (circled), marking the next phase of the bullish rally. Traders should remain cautious during this corrective phase but optimistic about the long-term upside, as the larger trend still supports buyers.
Technical Analyst: Sanmi Adeagbo
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Conclusion
While Silver is experiencing a short-term correction, the broader Elliott Wave structure suggests that the bullish trend will resume once this pullback is over. The key support level to watch is $26.515—if it holds, Silver is expected to rally toward $37.15 in the coming weeks or months. Despite the current downside, the long-term outlook remains bullish, with further gains ahead.