Wheat Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
Wheat prices are currently undergoing a pullback after rallies observed in August and early September. Since reaching a low in July 2024, wheat has surged over 11%. Despite this corrective rally, the overall trend remains bearish, suggesting that the sell-off could continue later in the year.
TradingLounge Wheat Commodity Daily Chart Analysis
In the daily chart, the bearish trend appears to be completing an impulse wave sequence that began in March 2022, when wheat prices peaked at 1364. The current analysis suggests the bearish impulse structure is nearing its end. Specifically, the fifth wave—labeled wave 5 (circled) of the primary degree—is forming an ending diagonal pattern. This diagonal is part of wave (5), which is expected to consist of three sub-waves. At present, wave (5) is in its second phase, wave B, which reflects the recent bounce from the July low. Once this wave structure completes, a further decline is anticipated, marking the final leg as wave C of (5). After the conclusion of wave (5), prices are projected to retrace the entire downward move that started from 1366, potentially spanning several months.
TradingLounge Wheat Commodity H4 Chart Analysis
The H4 chart provides a closer look at the ongoing bounce from July 2024, identified as wave B of (5). A double zigzag structure seems to have formed, potentially representing wave w (circled) of B, or it may indicate the completion of wave B itself. If the recent dip from September 13 holds above the critical support zone between 550 and 561, the upward extension of wave B could continue. On the other hand, if the current bearish move is impulsive and breaks below 550, it would suggest that wave B has already concluded, signaling the start of a downtrend in wave C of (5). Monitoring these key support levels is essential to determine the future direction of wheat prices.
Technical Analyst: Sanmi Adeagbo
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