Gold Elliott Wave Analysis: A Comprehensive Outlook on Market Trends
Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
XAUUSD Commodity Elliott Wave Analysis
Function: Trend Analysis
Mode: Impulse Movements
Structure: Impulse Wave Dynamics
Current Position: Wave 4
Expected Direction: Toward Wave 5
Detailed Insight: Currently, Gold's Wave 5 faces resistance around the key Fibonacci support areas. A diagonal pattern is noted in blue wave ‘c’ of 4, signaling a need for a decisive breakout to initiate Wave 5. The critical threshold to negate this analysis stands at 2245.17.
The price of Gold presents a robust testament to ongoing bullish trends, reflecting a significant revival in its long-term upward movement. This resurgence is particularly notable since hitting a low in September 2024, where it bottomed out at 1616. Since this crucial turning point, Gold has showcased considerable resilience, accruing more than a 40% increase. Nevertheless, beginning April 12, 2024, the precious metal witnessed a temporary setback in its otherwise bullish course. This correction, while significant, is viewed as a short-lived deviation, likely paving the way for further highs in the future.
Through the lens of Elliott Wave analysis, the dip to 1616 marks the end of a supercycle degree wave (IV), with the subsequent rally being identified as wave (V) of the same magnitude, progressing impulsively. The launch of wave III of (IV) in October 2023 from the 1810 low has been strong and decisive, currently navigating through the intermediate wave (3) within the primary wave 3 (marked in blue). This analysis suggests that there is still considerable potential before wave (V) reaches its peak. For a focused approach, attention should be directed at the intermediate wave (3), which is currently experiencing a corrective phase known as wave 4, expected to stabilize within the Fibonacci support range of 2315.5-2246.
Scenario Analysis on the H4 Chart:
1st Scenario:
This scenario sketches a zigzag pattern starting at the 2432 peak, where the completion of blue wave ‘c’ forms an ending diagonal. A resurgence in bullish momentum is anticipated around 2353, marking the beginning of wave 4. Should prices fall below 2258.9, this scenario would be invalidated.
2nd Scenario:
Alternatively, this scenario outlines a double zigzag pattern beginning at the 2432 peak, which may extend into the 38.2-50% Fibonacci retracement levels of wave 3, ranging between 2246 and 2191, before concluding wave 4 and commencing wave 5.
Conclusion:
While Gold’s pricing trend remains predominantly bullish, it is currently undergoing a corrective phase. A rise above 2353 would support the first scenario, whereas a drop below 2258.8 would invalidate it, potentially leading to the second scenario where support is likely between 2246 and 2191. Following the completion of wave 4, wave 5 is expected to drive the price to new heights.
Technical Analyst: Sanmi Adeagbo
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