Silver XAGUSD Commodity Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
Function: Trend
Mode: Trend
Structure: Zigzag for wave 2
Position: Wave 2 of (5)
Direction: Wave 2 of (5) is still in play
Details: The sharp decline on Friday indicated that wave 2 would likely reach lower levels within the 29.07-28.128 Fibonacci range as a double zigzag structure forms. However, an upside is still anticipated if wave 2 ends above 26.023, and especially above 29.54. This is consistent with the previous update.
Silver Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
Recent Market Activity:
Following a significant bullish trend in May 2024, Silver has been experiencing a corrective pullback since May 20th. Despite this retracement, the long-term trend remains upward, suggesting that prices should rise once the correction concludes. This analysis identifies potential reversal zones where buyers might expect the next rally to start.
Long-Term Analysis:
The long-term bullish trend for Silver began at 11.645 in March 2020. This trend could potentially complete a double zigzag with a target of 37, and possibly extend to 48.3. If Silver breaks the 48.3 level, it increases the probability that the sequence will turn into an impulse wave. Whether it becomes an impulse or remains corrective is not crucial at this point, as both scenarios predict further rallies. An impulse wave scenario has a higher target, indicating a much higher potential for Silver in the long term.
Daily Chart Analysis:
The current bullish impulse cycle started in January 2024 and is moving higher in the intermediate degree. The price surge from May 3rd is significant enough to be considered part of wave (5). However, there is no divergence with the RSI between the peaks of wave (3) and the supposed wave (5). This lack of divergence suggests that the current dip might be wave 2 of (5), meaning wave (5) could extend similarly to wave (3). Given the potential long-term target for Silver, this extension is plausible.
H4 Chart Analysis:
On the H4 chart, wave 2 is forming a double zigzag pattern and could find support within the 29.075-28.128 Fibonacci zone, where wave 3 might begin. The invalidation level for this scenario is at 26.023. However, traders should also watch for a breach of 27.54, which could signal a need to adjust the outlook to a deeper bearish correction from the May 2024 high.
Technical Analyst: Sanmi Adeagbo
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Summary:
Silver is currently in a corrective pullback within a long-term bullish trend. The long-term sequence, which began in March 2020, projects potential targets of 37 and possibly 48.3. The current cycle, which started in January 2024, suggests that wave (5) could extend higher. The H4 chart indicates that wave 2 might find support within the 29.075-28.128 Fibonacci zone, with an invalidation level at 26.023. A breach of 27.54 should prompt traders to consider a deeper bearish correction. Overall, Silver remains bullish in the long term, with the current pullback expected to give way to further rallies.