Soybean Commodity Elliott Wave Analysis
The long-term bearish trend for soybeans, initiated in June 2022, continues to exert downward pressure on prices, which are now hovering near a four-year low. The ongoing downtrend shows no indication of a significant reversal, and investors are likely to keep selling during rallies until a clear bottom is established. From a technical standpoint, there have been no strong reversal signals, suggesting the bearish trend may persist.
Soybean Elliott Wave Analysis
Long-Term Perspective
Prior to the June 2022 decline, soybeans experienced a bullish impulse wave that began in May 2019, driving prices up from $806. However, in the past 26 months, more than two-thirds of those gains have been erased. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current corrective phase appears to be developing into a three-wave pattern, a structure commonly seen in corrective waves.
Soybean Daily Chart Analysis
In the daily chart, the corrective pattern is analyzed from the primary wave degree (circled). Wave A (circled) concluded at $1,249 in October 2023, followed by Wave B (circled), which ended at $1,398 in November 2023. Currently, Wave C (circled) is unfolding to the downside. Within this wave, sub-waves (1) and (2) of 5 (circled) have been completed, and the price is now progressing in Wave (3). The price has broken below the key $1,000 level and could potentially decline to $800 before Wave (3) concludes. This movement is part of Wave 5 of (3), indicating that the bearish phase is ongoing. In the short term, additional downward pressure is anticipated.
Soybean 4-Hour Chart Analysis
On the H4 chart, Wave 5 is experiencing a temporary bounce in the 4th sub-wave, labeled as Wave iv (circled) of 5. This suggests that after this brief upward correction, soybeans are likely to resume their downward trend, continuing the sell-off. The broader bearish trend remains intact, with further declines expected as the market completes its ongoing corrective phase.
Technical Analyst: Sanmi Adeagbo
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