Corn Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
The ongoing recovery in Corn prices, starting from late August 2024, appears to be a minor correction within the broader bearish trend that began in April 2022. According to Elliott Wave theory, this downward trend remains incomplete, suggesting that after the current bounce, Corn prices will likely face another sell-off, potentially before reaching the $475 level.
Long-Term Outlook: Bearish Corrective Phase
Corn has been in a long-term bearish corrective phase, which began in July 2012. This correction is in response to the five-wave diagonal sequence that originated in the 1970s. Corrective waves, excluding triangles, typically unfold in three-wave patterns. The first wave of this correction ended in April 2020, followed by a significant rally that completed the second wave in April 2022. The subsequent decline from April 2022 is likely the third wave, which could extend down to $295. Therefore, the overall corrective phase remains incomplete, leaving room for further declines in Corn prices.
Current Developments on the Daily Chart
The daily chart focuses on the third wave, which appears to be forming a double zigzag pattern in the cycle degree. After completing waves w and x in this cycle, the price is currently within wave y. At present, wave y is incomplete, with the market now in wave (B) of ((Y)) of y. As long as the current bounce in wave (B) does not exceed $475, the downward move in wave (C) could start within the coming weeks. However, if the price breaks above $475, it may indicate the rally from the August 2024 low is part of a new wave ((X)), though in either scenario, a continuation of the downside is expected.
Short-Term Outlook: H4 Chart Focus
On the 4-hour chart, the focus is on the development of wave (B). The price is currently in wave C of (B), which is forming as an impulsive wave. In the short term, an upward move is favored in wave ((v)) of C of (B), targeting the $458-$475 range. This move is expected to be the end of the wave (B), after which the market may begin the next leg down in wave (C).
Technical Analyst: Sanmi Adeagbo
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