Soybean Elliott Wave Analysis
Soybean prices are in a sideways recovery phase since August 2024. Although they have gained approximately 5%, the long-term trend from June 2022 remains bearish, suggesting a potential price reversal to the downside.
Soybean Daily Chart Analysis
Between May 2019 and June 2022, soybean prices advanced in a 5-wave structure, climbing from $790 to $1787. According to Elliott Wave Theory, this 5-wave trend was followed by a 3-wave corrective pattern. The bearish 3-wave correction, labeled in the primary degree, began in June 2022:
- Wave ((A)) concluded in October 2024 with a diagonal structure at $1250.
- Wave ((B)) finished as a zigzag structure at $1398.
Currently, wave ((C)) is unfolding. The bounce from August 2024 represents wave (4) of ((C)). Once wave (4) concludes, wave (5) of ((C)) is expected to push prices lower, completing the correction phase and setting the stage for a potential long-term recovery.
Soybean H4 Chart Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, wave (4) appears to be forming a flat structure, which typically follows a 3-3-5 corrective pattern and has a sideways appearance. Within wave (4), wave C is nearing the completion of a 5-wave structure, likely an impulsive wave. Presently, prices are in wave ((iii)) of wave C of (4), indicating further short-term upside potential.
However, the upward correction may be short-lived, as the long-term bearish trend that started over 2.5 years ago is likely to resume once wave (4) concludes.
Technical Analyst: Sanmi Adeagbo
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