U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc (USDCHF) Elliott Wave Analysis – TradingLounge Day Chart
USDCHF Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
FUNCTION: Bearish Trend
MODE: Impulsive
STRUCTURE: Orange wave 3
POSITION: Navy blue wave 3
DIRECTION NEXT HIGHER DEGREES: Orange wave 4
DETAILS: Orange wave 2 appears completed; orange wave 3 now in progress.
Wave Cancel Invalid Level: 0.89168
The USDCHF daily Elliott Wave analysis highlights a strong bearish trend in progress, driven by an impulsive wave structure. The currency pair has likely completed orange wave 2 and is now advancing through orange wave 3 of a larger navy blue wave 3. This segment typically represents the most dynamic and forceful phase of the downtrend.
Orange wave 3 is known for its strong momentum and extended price action, often surpassing wave 1 in magnitude. With wave 2 confirmed as complete, the market is now poised for a deeper decline as wave 3 unfolds. This reinforces the bearish outlook for USDCHF in the short to medium term.
Following this, the next wave in the sequence will be orange wave 4—a corrective structure that could offer a temporary retracement before the larger downtrend resumes. Traders following the USDCHF Elliott Wave forecast should use the daily chart to monitor key developments in this wave pattern.
Key Level to Watch:
The 0.89168 price level is crucial as it serves as the invalidation point for the current bearish count. A price move above this resistance would invalidate the orange wave 3 outlook and require a reassessment of the wave structure. Until then, this level helps define risk and confirm the trend bias.
Wave 3 typically features sustained bearish momentum. As this phase progresses, traders should remain alert for potential reversal signals or signs of weakening, which may indicate the start of wave 4. Technical indicators, including momentum divergence and candlestick patterns, will be vital in validating the end of this wave and potential trading opportunities.
U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc (USDCHF) Elliott Wave Analysis – TradingLounge 4-Hour Chart
USDCHF Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
FUNCTION: Bearish Trend
MODE: Impulsive
STRUCTURE: Gray wave 5
POSITION: Orange wave 3
DIRECTION NEXT HIGHER DEGREES: Orange wave 4
DETAILS: Gray wave 4 seems completed; gray wave 5 is underway.
Wave Cancel Invalid Level: 0.89168
The USDCHF 4-hour chart supports the bearish Elliott Wave scenario, showing that gray wave 4 has likely completed and gray wave 5 is in motion. This wave is part of the broader orange wave 3, aligning with the daily timeframe's impulsive downtrend structure.
Gray wave 5 often signifies the final leg of an impulsive wave pattern, typically marked by either exhaustion or acceleration. With gray wave 4 behind us, this last push may revisit or break below recent lows before concluding the bearish cycle.
This movement suggests that the USDCHF downtrend may be nearing a short-term bottom. Once gray wave 5 ends, a retracement in orange wave 4 is anticipated. This correction could offer potential bullish trading setups or opportunities to reposition in line with the larger trend.
What Traders Should Watch:
The 0.89168 level remains the key invalidation point. A breakout above this resistance nullifies the current wave count. Traders should look for signs of gray wave 5 completing—such as bullish divergence, decreasing volume, or reversal candles.
Monitoring momentum indicators and price action closely will be essential to identify the end of the decline and the beginning of orange wave 4. The 4-hour chart is particularly useful for short-term trading strategies and recognizing early signs of trend reversal.
Technical Analyst: Malik Awais
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