TradingLounge Commodity: Wheat Elliott Wave Analysis

Function: Trend

Mode: Trend

Structure: Impulse wave

Position: Wave A of (B)

Direction: Wave A of (B) is still in play

Details: Wheat daily and H4 charts have been adjusted due to the rapid and deep decline from 720’4. The long-term forecast on the daily chart shows that the surge to 720’4 is part of the impulse wave from March 2022. We are now in wave (5), expected to emerge into a 3-wave structure. The price now appears to be in wave A, after which it will correct upside for B before returning downside.

Wheat Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Overview: Since late May, grain prices have been falling sharply, with Wheat shedding over 20% since May 28th, 2024. This decline is about to erase the gains made from mid-April to late May. The nearly one-month sell-off adds to the long-term decline from March 2022, when Wheat traded at 1364’4. Currently trading at 571’4, Wheat is likely to fall further toward 500 in the coming weeks.

Daily Chart Analysis: The decline from March 2022 is forming a bearish impulse wave structure in the primary degree. The 5th wave is completing a diagonal structure, which has been the most time-consuming among the actionary waves, lasting nearly 21 months. The price is currently in wave (5) of 5 (circled), which will likely evolve into a 3-wave structure targeting the 500 major psychological level.

H4 Chart Analysis: The H4 chart shows the sub-waves of wave (5), which is now close to completing its first leg - wave A of (5). A corrective bounce is expected to follow for wave B before the price turns downside for wave C of (5) toward 500, provided the 720’4 pivot is not breached. Wheat and other grains are overwhelmingly bearish and may continue in this direction for the next several weeks before major bullish corrections begin.

Conclusion: Wheat prices remain bearish with the potential for further declines, targeting the 500 psychological level, contingent on the completion of the current corrective wave B and the subsequent wave C of (5).

Technical Analyst: Sanmi Adeagbo

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